Update Tuesday August 21, 2012:
NOAA’s update has it turning into a hurricane as it passes below us to the south, tropical storm warnings will be issued to the US Virgin Islands:
From weather.com: – The tropical low east of the Lesser Antilles has finally gained enough thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression 9. It is likely to continue strengthening and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaac later today.
- The first land area to be affected will be the Leeward Islands (northern part of the Lesser Antilles) on Wednesday with squally weather; how much wind and rain on any particular island will depend on the exact track and nature of the system at that point. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted throughout the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico.
Monday, Aug 20, NOAA’s 1:45pm update still has this system as 80% chance of forming into something more threatening,
…but the one behind is has gone from yellow to orange, so it is also desperately wanting to be noticed.
From weather.com: - The system which came off Africa a few days ago and is trying to become Isaac continues moving very quickly toward the west, and although it’s increasingly spinning on satellite loops, there has not yet been a lot of persistent deep convection (thunderstorms) rotating around a center, as is needed for tropical cyclone development. Analyses show the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is more stable than average for this time of year, an inhibiting factor for rapid development.
From Gert & Super Dave: - Models first indicated that it might be a Category 3 at the time it would reach the islands. Now the intensity forecast is that it will be around tropical storm strength. The track still takes it over the Leeward Islands in 2 days. However, as you should know, nothing is certain with weather systems so we will have to keep a close eye on this one!
And there ya go.